Opportunity Assessment Model in Technology Entrepreneurship under Uncertainty: The Waste-Based Approach as a Measure of Decision Quality
Abstract
This study aims to develop a practical model for opportunity assessment in technology entrepreneurship ventures operating under high-uncertainty environments, employing the concept of “waste” as a primary indicator of decision quality. The study adopted a qualitative methodology using a multiple-case study design (12 technology startups) and analyzed 36 early-stage decisions through semi-structured interviews and secondary documents. The findings revealed that: (1) the level of uncertainty is determined by three principal factors-clarity of the target market, clarity of customer requirements, and clarity of the technological solution; (2) the assessment process centers on six core questions distributed between a short-term survival dimension and a long-term growth dimension; (3) the average waste in cases that followed a linear (definitional) model reached 68% of expended resources, compared with only 23% in cases that followed an iterative, testing-based model; (4) a realistic understanding of knowledge reliability (rather than answer accuracy) is the most critical determinant of decision quality. The study offers a diagnostic framework that entrepreneurs can use to reduce waste and improve decision effectiveness in the early stages.
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Copyright (c) 2026 Mohannad Ghanem
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